It is too early to tell where the epicurve goes next. If it follows the pattern in some other countries (such as the UK), the “daily positive test cases” will rise over the summer (so much for the popular meme on social media that Covid-19 is seasonal).

You can easily see a pattern in the trend – the same kind of pattern that exists in epicurves for past disease outbreaks decades ago – the cycles repeat with a pattern. At the beginning of the pandemic each cycle rises steeply.

In the later phases, the cycles rise more slowly and do not go as high.

This is not a sophisticated analysis – this is just pointing out the obvious.’

It is too early to say anything about this next “wave”, it is a guess that this next rise will be slower than the spring 2021 rise and the peak will be lower, and might occur within 4-6 weeks. Deaths and hospitalizations likely remain at current levels – or even continue down as has occurred in other countries with high vaccination rates.

With a combination of natural and vaccine immunity wide spread, asymptomatic and mild cases of disease will become common (that’s how immunity works). “Positive test cases” will go up because in 2021 we test everyone with a sniffle. Never before in history have we done that. We will detect a lot of “cases” that traditionally would have been ignored.

Reminder: I am a brain injured idiot with no relevant experience. I make observations and ask really stupid questions. If you take any of this post seriously, that is your own fault. I do not normally post projections – I’ve watched the “expert” modelers be wrong, most of the time. I have no confidence in my “projection”. It’s just an observation and nothing more.

By EdwardM