Photos and videos of several large parties Saturday circulated on social media, showing people standing shoulder-to-shoulder and without masks.

Source: University of Oregon ‘disappointed’ over large party amid rising COVID cases – oregonlive.com

The parties took place on May 1, 2021, marked by the magenta arrow (from OHA County data for Lane County, OR – where these parties took place). The University banned spectators at their football game – so students gathered in private, off campus homes, instead (predictable!)

The pattern since May 1 is predominately down except for two days with 70 cases on May 5 and 6. Johns Hopkins says the median time from exposure to onset of symptoms is just over 5 days (with 2-14 days the published expectation), so it is possible the two days with 70 cases represent an increase over the run rate. Most all cases will occur within about 11 days. Casesfell to 38 and 23 within the next 2-3 days, continuing a downward trend.

It is plausible that the parties played a role but it is also plausible the parties played no role.

I periodically save pronouncements, forecasts, projections and so on, and mark them for future follow up. This is the follow up to this saved item from early May.

By EdwardM