In a peer-reviewed paper now published in Biometrics, I find that, in all three cases, Covid-19 levels were probably falling before lockdown. A separate paper, with colleague Ernst Wit, comes to the same conclusion for the first two lockdowns, by the alternative approach of re-doing Imperial College’s major modelling study of the epidemic in 2020. In light of this, the Imperial College claim that new infections were surging right up until lockdown one — causing about 20,000 avoidable deaths — seems rather questionable.
Elsewhere, last November, a Harvard epidemiologist said that anyone questioning lock down policies should be held “for some form of accountability” and said those questioning lock downs are connected to right wing interests.
It can be difficult for a society to make forward progress in finding the truth when questions are prohibited and censorship is common.