“Daily positive tests” are increasing in some states while decreasing in others. There is little consistency between measures undertaken and outcomes.
A doctor posted on social media that we need to keep our mitigations in place. Yet many people – a surprisingly large number – noticed the disconnect between mitigations and outcomes – there is literally no correlation. Yet epidemiologists never, ever look at their past pronouncements and say, “How did we do?” Instead, they just make more grand pronouncements and harsh, draconian orders.
California had the worst outcomes but the strictest life restrictions, starting before almost all other states, for example.
The doctor’s post prompted many replies like this:
My own observation is that in spite of all the mitigation factors, given time, nearly everywhere ends up at the same destination – meaning, for more positive test cases than they ever imagined.
Its tempting to blame Trump but even Trump would be surprised to find he was not the leader of the UK, Spain, Belgium, France, Germany, the Czech Republic – all having terrible outbreaks.
Never before in history did we attempt to lock down entire states or nations. The Federal government itself says 71% of all workers are essential and society falls apart if they stop working. While some can work from home, many people still do hands on “real work”, keeping our water systems, utility power, food and goods production, shipping and distribution going, plus all the work needed to support that – such as plowing roads, vehicle maintenance and so on.
We also forget that places where lockdowns may have worked at a very early head start. New Zealand’s first two cases occurred about 3 months after the first cases were already circulating in the U.S. (which has now been determined to have occurred in dearly December of 2019). In Wuhan, China, they locked down the equivalent of 11 counties – not entire states or nations, a point lost on the typical pundit.
Every reporter in America – who has since been clamoring for “we should have done more” – was condemning China in print and on social media – for their lock down in early 2020.
We now have good indications that NYC specifically was ground zero in the U.S. for the spread of the disease due to high travel between NYC and the rest of the country, and the lackadaisical attitude of NYC leaders, including their public health commissioner, who urged everyone to take part in community events and parades in February and March.
By the time we knew what was happening we were past the point at which a short lock down, in a specific region, might have had some benefit. We missed the opportunity.