When I looked at this last week, some of these countries had had much lower – such as 1/3d – the number of daily case counts/100k population at their peak versus the U.S. Perhaps they had not reached the threshold for slow down effects of gradual population immunity?
Since then, new daily cases have climbed nearly 20 percent overall. In France, they’re up more than 30 percent. In Brazil, they’re up more than 50 percent. In Italy, they’re up more than 80 percent. In India, they’re up more than 110 percent.
I have observed that within the U.S. states, those states that did so well during the first six months, and held out as exemplary models for all other states to follow, then became far worse in the next six months. It seems that everywhere ends up in the same place, give time. Most of our mitigations may have delayed the pandemic until such time as natural population immunity effects began to kick in.
Update: I just went to the WHO’s Covid-19 status page – and every country I sampled that has had 3 waves is now at low levels. Every country that had two waves is now seeing an increase in positive test results and building into a 3rd wave. It’s as if the mitigation measures delayed the inevitable – and did not eliminate the eventual catch up to the same as everywhere else.
Remember, I am a brain injured idiot with no relevant experience. I do not make predictions: I make observations and ask stupid questions.