January 28th and on February 1st I said peak deaths were likely behind us, contrary to then current news reports:
If this holds true across the country – and there is strong evidence to suggest it does – then the U.S. hit peak deaths somewhere from late December to early January.
The peak death numbers you see now at end of January are catching up with lagging death reports from weeks ago.
February 27:
Some one posted a chart using “Actual death date” data from the CDC. Peak week of deaths in the U.S. was January 9th (black region on this chart), confirming my hypothesis, above. This is great news! We have passed peak deaths! (With declining new cases, hospital and ICU bed census, we will not soon see a dramatic increase in deaths – by actual dates – although we may still see reports of past deaths.)
Because of long lag times, the CDC’s chart showing “daily reported deaths” is a month or so behind. The random delays in reporting deaths time shifts the death trend in to the future. 2 weeks ago, Ohio began adding 4,000+ deaths occurring in October to December, into their recent daily reports.
For these reasons, death data presented in most charts show public health data collection efficiency and not a trend in deaths by actual date.
