Push to redistribute U.S. Doses to Other countries

Last fall I said the vaccine privileged would demand access to vaccine passports. That has occurred.

I said wealthy nations would be under pressure to re-allocate their doses to other countries – and will do this once the elite have vaccine privilege. Donating other people’s doses will make the vaccine privileged feel virtuous.

The “Cover” for the Redistribution at Mid-Year

Reduction in New Cases

Assuming daily new cases of Covid-19 continue to fall, the disease spread will be at lower levels by spring time. This will become the explanation for why it is okay for the U.S. to defer urgency on dosing the remaining population.

“Excess Supply”

The U.S. has contracted delivery of an estimated 4.7 million doses per day by July. However, it is unlikely the U.S. will ramp up beyond administering 2-3 million doses per day. Rather than ramp up to available doses, we will decide the U.S. then has an “excess supply” and will donate doses elsewhere, even as 1/3 or more of the country is still waiting.

Trickle Down Vaccine Immunity

Finally, the argument will be that “you won’t need a vaccine when so many others already got theirs“. This argument has already begun circulating. The more people who have immunity, the less likely the disease is to spread, which is true on a society wide basis. But the odds of serious disease or mortality – if you are not vaccine privileged – remain exactly the same. You may be less likely to contract the disease, but if you do, your odds of serious disease or mortality are the same as before.

The same people who argue that “Trickle down economics” is a fraud will simultaneously say “Trickle down immunity” works great.

Virtue Signaling

The U.S., as described above, is under much pressure to re-allocate doses to other country, and to counter the geopolitical goodwill going towards other countries including China and Russia. Second, the vaccine privileged elite in the U.S., once they are vaccinated and there is no risk to themselves, will wish to signal their virtuousness by donating your dose to another country. While they are free to travel and attend events with their vaccine passport, and you are not.

Biden’s advisor, Zeke Emanuel says he thinks the U.S. will be in a position to re-distribute doses by spring.

This report incorrectly calculates the percent of “global” vaccine doses going to the U.S. by leaving out other global vaccines that are now shipping, such as SinoVac and Sputnik V. But later in the story, the reporter notices and writes:

White House Press Secretary Jen Psaki warned on Friday that China and Russia could use vaccines to make other countries beholden to them.

Exactly – China and Russia will earn goodwill by delivering low cost vaccines to global customers. This adds to the pressure on the U.S. to re-allocate doses to other nations.

Academics, who are prioritized in the phase 1b or 1c categories for early vaccination are pushing on re-allocating U.S. doses to other nations.

As I said in December, Once the elite, the “essential” and the important people have been vaccinated, they will demand U.S. doses go to other countries. And just like that …

Update Feb 21: I expect the US will succumb to pressure and donate 5% of its vaccine supply by mid year 2021, and another 5% in 2H 2021 – before it has made vaccine available to all of its own citizens.

Public health enthusiasts will argue that cases have fallen as the nation seems to have reached a natural state of herd immunity and this will be the cover for selling a postponement in further US vaccination deliveries.

The elite – who will have been vaccinated already – will demonstrate their virtuousness, at no risk to themselves – by donating my future dose to other countries.

As I have said since the fall of 2021, by the time many of us are eligible to be vaccinated, the pandemic will have ended on its own and vaccinations may be merely a formality for public health.

BUT – vaccine passports are already live and those us waiting until the end will be treated as second-class citizens while the vaccine privileged go on about their lives.

Public health has been an epic disaster on everything. On the communications side, they’ve labeled us as:

  • non essential
  • non elite
  • second class citizens
  • held in virtual lock down and cut off from our lives (using the term “lockdown” which previously applied to prison inmates, not the general public)
  • Conducted a year long psychological terror ops campaign creating fear, panic and hysteria
  • And then said our “vaccine envy” is a treatable mental health defect

Public health experts are not acting like nice people. They need to clean up their damn act. Now.

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