Public Health Agency Canada presented the following model projection to a government Health Committee this week.
Yes, the yellow and gray lines are their model projection – unless Canada adds even more restrictive regulations. We will want to follow up on this in 2 or 3 weeks.
Their model output has launched and is off in space. Even government officials were rolling their eyes.
Stephen McIntyre added the most recent data points, in red and posted this on Twitter.
R-0 will have to go to about 50 for this to occur, whereas R-0 has spent most of the pandemic in the 1.0 +/- range.
Hard to imagine anyone could be worse than UW IHME but competition is certainly heating up:
The disease modelers were unable to answer the most basic questions about their model, nor were they able to explain why this would happen in Canada but is not happening elsewhere nor happening in other’s models for other nations.
This is what disease modeling looks like. Let’s follow up in a few weeks.
If the projected outcome does not occur, PHAC will say that “People did a good job of complying”. Of course.
Remember “15 days to flatten the curve” became a month, or two or three, to oh hell, not until we have a vaccine. Then that transmogrified into “we don’t trust the vaccine”, “the vaccine may not work anyway”, and then that has now changed again to “Not until we accept totalitarian communist governments run by technocrat experts ” 🙂