38 deaths were reported yesterday – a large increase from our daily pattern.

  • 8 of the 38 deaths occurred in December.
  • 17 of the 38 deaths occurred in the first 2 weeks of January – which is more than 4 weeks ago.
  • The remaining 13 deaths occurred during the past 4 weeks and is the typical number of daily deaths reported.

This is why using daily “reported deaths” as a metric for Covid-19 is useless and leads to false conclusions.

Update: The next day, they reported 45 deaths by counting lots of deaths from long ago. On the day after that, deaths went to zero. Biology cannot explain the 38, 45, 0 sequence  – only catching up on on old data explains that. Not one person in the media understands this so their reporting leads to unnecessary fear.

As I previously showed – and my state’s OHA agreed – our peak date of deaths was the first full week of December and not in January as their late processing of “daily deaths” had implied. Also this week, Ohio is dumping 4,000 deaths that occurred October-December into their daily reports.

The only good metric we have is hospitalizations.  “Daily positive tests” are skewed by weather, increases/decreases in daily tests given, college/university openings and mass screening of large asymptomatic populations. And death reports are so far behind – and frequently sandbagged with “catch up reports” as to be near useless.

Once we correct for the reporting delays, we find that peak actual death days are the same as peak ICU bed usage. We see the ICU bed usage peak in almost real time and this is an excellent proxy for spotting the peak days of deaths from Covid-19.

Source: *Updated* Oregon reports 517 new confirmed and presumptive COVID-19 cases, 38 new deaths

By EdwardM