The surge in good news continues:
The decline appears to be a global phenomenon, with new infections falling worldwide for the past three weeks in a row, the World Health Organization said Monday
Hospitalizations have fallen nearly 30% from a peak of of 132,474 on January 6 to 92,880, the lowest figure seen since November 29
Currently, 44 states are seeing a decline in cases with just Alabama, Louisiana, Montana, New Jersey, Oklahoma and Pennsylvania trending upward, according to Johns Hopkins data
California’s 21,451 new confirmed cases on Tuesday are about one-third the mid-December peak of 54,000
….
Health experts say it is too soon for vaccines to be playing a major role in the decline with just 8% of the population having received the first shot and fewer than 2% being fully immunized
Officials say the drop is likely due to a higher number of people who’ve had the virus than official counts suggest, as many as 90 million people, and fewer people traveling than did over the winter holidays
- Epidemiologists predicted a post holiday “surge upon surge”. Oops.
- There was no holiday surge (but some “experts” remain stuck on this). The 1st derivative of the epicurve shows cases stopped accelerating in early to mid-November and by late December, were in decline.
- They have no coherent explanation for the sudden drop.
- Maybe there was more natural immunity than we realized.
- Maybe more people have had Covid-19 than was realized.
- Or its because all those “not compliant” people suddenly became “compliant”
- Now “experts” are predicting a massive surge due to variants – but the UK variant has been here since November and cases have been in decline and are in sharp decline in the UK. The South Africa variant has been here for a month – and cases in South Africa are in sharp decline too. None of this makes much sense.
This is awkward.
(Remember, I am brain injured idiot with no health care experience who makes observations and asks stupid questions. I do not make predictions.)
