California ends lock downs, there was no holiday surge

Hospitalizations from COVID-19 have fallen substantially in nearly every region of California to the point where, this past weekend, there were fewer COVID-positive patients being treated in hospit…

Source: Coronavirus: California’s cases, hospitalizations looking up

California today lifted its stay at home orders across the entire state. Peaks in new cases were just narrowly before Christmas. They’ve admitted there was no holiday surge in the Sacramento metro area.

The original order was based on secret pseudo science the state refused to make public – because it might confuse people, they said. Yes, secret science.

The ordered was lifted even though the State does not meet their a priori metrics for re-opening, but is opening because a model projects they will meet those goals in 4 weeks. In fact, there are more daily new positive tests on January 25th than there were on December 7 when the lock down began.

The decision to re-open is based either on pseudo science or politics – a recall petition to remove the Governor is nearing its required signatures. Some joke that Newsom said all decisions are based on numbers – and in this case, his poll numbers – hah hah 🙂

The surge myth was created because of a very weak correlation without causation, which provided a convenient way to explain away what they could not explain (as one paper headline proclaimed “California has run out of reasons“).  With new cases in CA and LAX peaking before the holidays, the “surge upon surge” meme collapses.

The single highest day of new positive tests was on December 15th. The 7-day moving average peaked on December 26th. There was no holiday surge and anyone claiming such is lying. The large increases in cases began in early November and rose steadily, unmodified by holidays.