Today is January 19th, 2021. On January 20th, President-elect Joe Biden will be inaugurated as President.
As can be seen in these charts (and there are many more) this pandemic wave appears to have peaked – in many places, weeks to month ago, and nationally perhaps last week or this week (too early to tell for sure).
Updated on Jan 20, 2021 – note the surprisingly sharp drop in daily new cases (hard to see vertical columns at far right)
Updated Jan 20th – deaths have started down.
In spite of the scary news reports, California’s new cases peaked before Christmas. There was no “holiday surge” even though a lot of public health quacks continue to insist there was. If there was, why was there none in the Sacramento metro area? Why was there none in numerous other states? And why does it not show up in the California data?
On Jan 20th, 2021, deaths have started down in CA (this chart from official CA public health web site)
The next charts shows total Covid-19 hospitalized patients in Los Angeles County. This chart comes from the LA County Public Health Department. As you can see, that situation seems to have peaked the first week of January.
The next chart is one that I make for Oregon data. As you can see, the peak time for deaths was about Nov 25th through mid-December. The data to the right will backfill in the future (death reports lag, and in Oregon, by weeks and months). The blue line (red averaged) is the date that deaths actually took place. The orange line is the date the deaths were reported. The public only sees the large orange values and thinks deaths are getting worse. But that is false. These reports contained deaths dating back weeks and months earlier.
Allegedly NY, like so many places, had learned its lessons in the spring and was now doing better. Except not.
The Kinsa model uses data from state public health departments, and data from their own instrumented thermometer network where people report their temperatures, nationwide. This data is combined into a model. About 3 weeks go, the entire map was bright read. As you can see, the situation has greatly improved and continues to improve.
The Kinsa forecast for one week from now.
El Paso TX. The media gave saturation coverage to the “crisis” there back in November. Once things improved – a lot – the national media coverage vanished. A side effect is we all continue to think, vaguely, that El Paso must be out of control when it is not.
North Dakota was all over the news (and social media) last November. But something happened since then – and media coverage of the improvement vanished. Once again, we all vaguely remember that the midwest was disaster zone and are unaware that it has not been for many weeks. In fact, the Covid situation in much of the midwest has been among the best in the country.
North versus South Dakota are good test cases. Neither state had many restrictions until things got bad. Around the peak in November, ND added restrictions including face masks.
South Dakota, though, did not. Yet they both had similar outcomes.
Obviously this proves the mitigation measures worked. Except it demonstrates the opposite – both had the same outcome in spite of, not because of, public health mitigation measures.
Another possibility is that everyone in SD voluntary undertook mitigation steps. In which chase, this would be an argument in favor of voluntary – rather than heavy handed, threatening enforcement.
And finally the DunderData forecast model from a data scientist. Of interest, his forecasts have tended to run high – so this is interesting to see the drop off in cases in the forecast.
Many scientists have suggested that we reach a (mostly) natural herd immunity, with significant drops in new cases, in early 2021 and that the pandemic mostly ends on its own by late spring. We hope that plays out.
I have been watching this pattern in the data since early December and privately suggested that the peak is reached by end of January. I do not make predictions so I did not share that here. I make observations and ask stupid questions.
Remember, I am an idiot with no health care experience. I make observations and ask stupid questions. My comments are for entertainment only.