Los Angeles places the entire city under house arrest

Wow. The Mayor of Los Angeles declared Martial Law:

All residents within the city of Los Angeles were ordered to remain in their homes effective immediately, according to a new emergency order issued Wednesday evening.

All travel, including travel on foot, bicycle, scooter, motorcycle, automobile, or public transit is prohibited.

Failure to comply with the order will constitute a misdemeanor subject to fines and imprisonment, according to the document. The mayor urged the Los Angeles Police Department and the city attorney to “vigorously enforce this.”

Source: Residents in city of Los Angeles ‘ordered to remain in their homes’ amid COVID-19 surge | KTLA

Walking is not an “essential activity” and is prohibited.  But liquor stores will remain open – they are defined as “Essential”! That makes perfectly logical sense, well supported by strong scientific evidence – not.

Meanwhile, huge numbers of people are without incomes, in danger of losing their homes, unable to feed their families. And can’t even walk outside their own home. This is not a zero-sum game. How long until  riots break out in Los Angeles?

It’s also confusing – the city now says this Order has been in effect for days, and is just a revision to an Order in effect since March.

Meanwhile, this afternoon a Judge ordered Los Angeles County to show its evidence for outdoor dining ban – and to provide a full risk vs benefits analysis. Closing all restaurants is not risk free either, he points out.

Update: California is on the verge of banning all “leisure travel” statewide.

Covid-19 vaccination programs begin next week in the United Kingdom and Russia

The UK has approved use of the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine and 800,000 doses will be available, mostly at hospitals, by the weekend for administration probably starting on Monday.

Russia, which has vaccinated about 100,000 in Sputnik V test phase, will begin delivering vaccinations next week. They have about 2 million doses pre-manufactured.

The U.S. is expected to begin rolling out the Pfizer/BioNTech vaccine by Dec 12th and the Moderna vaccine, perhaps about one week later.

As I have pointed out, however, at 2-3 million vaccinations per day (eventually and seven days per week), that will take up to several months to reach half of the U.S. population.

Let’s roll.

My predictions are as worthless as anyone elses

I think my state (Oregon) peaked in new positive test results on Nov 21st, peaked in new hospitalizations on Nov 30th, and will peak on reported deaths within about a week or so. We hope.

According to WHO data, it looks like the U.S. peaked on new cases about the 3rd week of November.

The Kinsa model covid-map data also supports this.

Will there be a post-holiday “surge upon a surge” in new cases? I have no idea. I can only note that holiday air travel Thanksgiving week was in line with the ordinary weekly fluctuations in air travel we have seen during the air traffic recovery phase. There was no significant surge, which is contrary to the fake news headlines. There could still be increases in positive tests due to increased risks from other actions, of course.

My predictions are as worthless as anyone else’s worthless predictions. I am an idiot who has no expertise in health care. But I’ve made excellent investment decisions by acting on my own research and ignoring many experts. So there’s that.

“Experts” say schools may remain closed until at least the end of 2021

There are, however, reasons to believe that R-0 will be very low by next spring but let’s keep schools closed forever:

Several experts have expressed hopes that a vaccine could be available for children before the start of the new school year, putting an end to the disruptions in learning. One is Evan Anderson, a pediatrician at Children’s Healthcare of Atlanta, who co-wrote an article published in the journal Clinical Infectious Diseases in September that pushed for pediatric trials to begin immediately.

But, Anderson said, the window is quickly closing for those younger than 12 who have not yet been included in the trials.

“The window is closing on any chance of getting an approved vaccine for children before next school year, and it realistically may have already closed,” he told The Washington Post.

Source: When will children get a coronavirus vaccine, and how will it affect school? – The Washington Post

Remember:

  • 15 days to flatten the curve
  • Well, may be a month
  • Nope, two months
  • Oh heck, 3 months
  • “We need to wait until there is a vaccine”
  • “We don’t trust the vaccine”

The virus is mostly mild in children with mortality potentially on par with other viruses in children each winter. If all or most adults are vaccinated, who are we protecting by keeping children out of school? I am not following the logic other than we are seeking a “zero risk” policy – which is not possible as keeping schools closed for 14 more months will cause other serious problems.

Kinsa HealthWeather™

Kinsa model down to just 3 states still in an accelerating trend and all 3 of those may now be in a downwards trend (too early to tell yet but just go to the web site, click on the state, and observe the curve). Most of the “red” states are now in a flat top or declining trend. Ignore the headlines referring to a “surge in new cases” – the CDC and WHO trendlines are also now in the downwards directions.

They may yet reverse, of course, as the holidays may have delayed reporting. Plus mid weeks reports tend to be much higher than the beginning of the week due to fewer tests and reporting delays on the weekends.

There may yet be effects from travel and household get togethers, although the forecast surge in air traffic was tiny compared to what they were expecting (+3.4% over prior week, +10% prior week, inline with the normal variation in weekly passenger loads).

Source: Kinsa HealthWeather™

Good news: Vaccine timelines

Here’s the vaccine availability timeline, from news reports, sourcing to the US Department of Health and Human Services.

Most vaccines are 2 doses, with the 2nd dose coming about 4 weeks after the first.

  • December: 20 to 40 doses, providing the first shot for 20 to 40 million people.
  • January: Up to 60 to 70 million doses, with some being given as the 2nd shot and some given as the 1st shot.
  • February: Not specified, but assume up to 100 million doses.
  • March: 150 million doses and the same number available every month thereafter.

That’s 330 million doses, or assuming 2 per person, that’s about 165 million potentially vaccinated or 50% of the population by around March/April time frame.

Adding 75 million more people, per month, achieves availability to everyone by June.

The major logistic challenge is administration of doses to individuals. We need to target up to over 3 million doses per day, 7 days per week.

Also consider, per the former FDA Commissioner, up to 30% of the U.S. population may have had Covid-19 by end of 2020, and thereby, various forms of immunity. An additional unknown percentage appears to have pre-existing immunity – perhaps due to exposure to common cold viruses or other vaccines (notably TB and MMR) that may offer some exposure.

It seems likely – doesn’t it? – that the pandemic will peak shortly and then drop in early 2021. But remember, I am an idiot who has no health care certification and my comments are for Entertainment Purposes Only.

Additional vaccines from other manufacturers will be forthcoming in early 2021 too. Perhaps as many as ten!

Update

The bottleneck is not going to be vaccine dose availability. The bottleneck is in administering the vaccinations – up to 3 million per day, 7 days per week.

States have formulated priority access plans for vaccine administration.

Without going through the details, many of the near elderly – such as age 60 to 64 – will be among the last 5% eligible for vaccination. That’s just how the vaccine access plans have been written.

Best tutorial on learning to use Fusion 360

Computer aided design (CAD) tools like Autodesk Inventor or Solidworks – are difficult to learn to use.

Most available online tutorials are out of date as the software is updated annually – and you’ll quickly get stuck, with no where to go for help.

Products such as Inventor and SolidWorks are priced for professional engineering firms – with licenses costing thousands of (US) dollars per year per “seat”. Not something hobbyists can use!

For hobbyist use, you should check out the Educational license for Fusion 360 or the freely available DesignSpark.

With Fusion 360, I also quickly ran into the gotchas of learning CAD software and got stuck.

With much relief, I found Paul McWhorter’s outstanding Youtube tutorials on Fusion 360. Start here!

Right out of the gate, he recognizes the places new learners get stuck and smooths out those challenges right in the first lessons.

Paul is very calm, patient and mild mannered in his presentations. They are great. He also has extensive tutorials on Raspberry Pi, Arduino, Sketchup and other topics.

I had to look a bit online to find out about his background as he doesn’t say much about it. He is a retired research scientist/engineer, inventor, author of numerous top ranked research papers, executive management at a national laboratory (at which my late father-in-law worked as an electrical engineer), and co founder of a Silicon Valley tech company. Apparently he gets bored easily as he now teaches high school math too. He’s awesome – thank you Paul for all you have done!

Oddly enough, the very first video of his I saw was a video on how to protect home raised chickens from predators! Yeah, his several channels cover a wide range of topics!

Kinsa HealthWeather™ – Down to just 6 states in an accelerating new cases trend

The Kinsa model is down to just six states still in an accelerating trend of new positive tests (as of 12/1, 3 of those six states are, in fact, now in decline – that means we are down to just 3 states). My state is one of them but I suspect we have rounded the peak here, also. Most states are now in a dropping trend and many are seeing very sharp drops. I saw another model that says nationally, the R-0 value has dropped below 1.0, which means new cases are dropping.

The next 1 to 2 weeks will confirm or disprove the “Thanksgiving holiday” “surge upon a surge” forecasts made by the experts. At this time, new cases and deaths are in a decline, however, the holidays may have delayed some data reporting and this could be a false decline.

Remember, I am an idiot with no health care expertise and my comments are strictly for Entertainment Purposes Only.

Hypocrites: The Elite who ignore quarantine orders they enforce on everyone else 

This list is huge and constantly expanding. Just added five more “elite” who said the rules do not apply to them: Hypocrites: The Elite who ignore quarantine orders they enforce on everyone else | Coldstreams Business and Tech

I also made this a “sticky” at the top of the page as this list will continue to be updated. It is ear that “officials” world-wide, do not seem to believe in their own guidance.