State public health admits measures are not working

OHA acknowledges that in spite of nearly everyone doing exactly what they have been asked to do, cases are skyrocketing and their model suggests a new phase of exponential growth. Real world data from our mass population experiment  finds that most measures do not work.

We’ve had a face mask mandate since July 1. On October 8th, OHA released a survey finding 84% of the population complies with face masks. By late November, the COVIDcast project at CMU estimated a 95% compliance rate in Oregon. Cellular data confirms people have dramatically cut travel. Restaurants, gyms and offices are closed. People are working at home.

Yet new cases continue to sky rocket.  The result of our mass population experiment indicates these measures do not work:

The current level of transmission could generate “exponential” growth, resulting in approximately 2,000 new daily cases and 75 additional daily hospitalizations by Dec. 24.

If the spread of COVID-19 reached the levels from mid-October, new daily cases could reach 2,700 and patients needing hospitalization would increase to 110 per day.

The model does consider the time period during Thanksgiving.

The model also shows that Oregonians are practicing physical distancing at the highest levels since the beginning of the summer and that a majority of Oregonians are wearing face coverings when outside, or indoors where six feet of distance cannot be maintained.

Source: Oregon Health Authority : Oregon reports 2,176 new confirmed and presumptive COVID-19 cases, 30 new deaths : External Relations Division : State of Oregon

This the clearest contemporary statement from public health acknowledging that everything we are doing is not working, and not working as they had previously claimed it would.  Instead of getting better, in spite of following all the rules, things are getting worse.

The media has begun to notice:

“Our newest modeling confirms our worst fears. Things could get much worse before most of us are vaccinated, and likely will. It’s certainly possible that by Christmas, we will be reporting double the case rates we’re seeing now. We are on the brink of a full-blown crisis. The data proves this.”

And that is despite finding that more than 84% of Oregonians are wearing a mask, transportation around the state is down 35%. Cellphone data shows fewer people are going to offices and more are staying home.

“the data proves ” – proves that these measures have failed and no one knows why.

Public health has known that most of these measures do not work on a large, country-wide scale, nor for the long term. It is perplexing why the field has not advanced past measures already known not to work and why they have continued to push measures that demonstrably are not working.

New thinking is desperately required to respond to a large scale pandemic.

How else do we explain the random results from measures taken, and the “they did everything right” from earlier this year that are now in crisis mode?

Related: California – which earlier in the year was lauded as a state that “did everything right” is now in the midst of full scale, uncontrolled panic and is in process of locking up much of the state, closing businesses, and threatening destruction of their retail and hospitality sector in the weeks leading up to Christmas.

Like Oregon, California’s real world data demonstrates that these pandemic policies do not work in the real world. Public health has failed.