“30% of U.S. may get Covid-19 by year-end” and future outbreaks will diminish

I posted this on the blog in recent months but I am an idiot who knows nothing:

“You’re getting to levels where this virus is not going to circulate as readily,” the former FDA chief told CNBC on Monday.

Source: Dr. Scott Gottlieb: 30% of U.S. may get Covid-19 by year-end

And the pandemic begins to end, as all pandemics have ended – natural population immunity effects. But watch for a lot of “experts” and politicians to take credit for this natural ending!

Throw in vaccines and various forms of prior immunity and its ending.

The first vaccine shipments have begun being delivered to distribution centers. UK may begin administering vaccinations on Dec 7, the US by Dec 12th, and Moderna’s vaccine may be approved in the U.S. on Dec 17th. We may hear results of Johnson and Johnson’s phase 3 trials during December with approval for use in January. In China, two of the vaccines in Phase 3 trials there have reportedly been submitted for government approval. Russia’s Sputnik V vaccine has reported a 95% efficacy in their phase 3-like trial.

The next step is distribution – as I noted in early October, to vaccinate half of the US population in six months requires 1 to 2 million vaccinations per day. The numbers are huge but they are achievable.

Obviously, we won’t know whether this trend continues for a bit longer – for example, today’s CDC chart is promising but the pattern could yet change:

But we do know, from the pattern in other states and countries is that there is about a ten week period from wave trough to peak and we are at that point now. Why that occurs is not known – is it natural? Or is because it takes that long for areas to enact “restrictions” that may or may not have an effect? No one knows.

Hospitalizations will continue to rise for a bit, and probably also deaths, although the CDC chart shows that trend line going now too (possibly due to delayed reporting over the holidays). Also note that the U.S. has 50 states, each with its own demographics, physical differences (e.g. weather), and policies – and outbreaks may be rising in some states while decreasing in many – simultaneously. As of today, the Kinsa model shows 7 states with accelerating case counts – down from about 20 states just a few weeks ago.

I don’t know anything about health care and have no certifications in health care so I must disclose that I am an idiot and my comments here are for entertainment purposes only.