The slope of the epicurve is starting to fall

The slope of wave #3 is still rising but it is gradually beginning to reduce indicating a slowing growth rate.

From looking at epicurves of many states, it can be observed that there is about a ten week (70 day) period from wave trough to peak before the curve begins to drop. Many states have passed this point and are now in declining numbers of new cases, per day. Other states, like mine, came to this 3rd wave late – and may yet rise for another week or two. There are indications (from someone else) that we may see a smaller increase in total cases in my state this week, likely flat topping on the curve very soon. We hope so.

The effects of Thanksgiving are not known – some think there will be another large wave as a result of holiday travel. We will certainly out in early December and then again in January.

Deaths will likely climb for a few more weeks.

At around 200,000 positive test results/day, and the assumption by many states that 5x to 10x more people have the disease without being tested (due to asymptomatic or common cold symptoms being ignored), we might be seeing 1 million to 2 million new cases per day. Wow, that’s a a lot!

This implies population immunity effects might begin to take hold as the virus finds fewer targets to successfully infect and use as a vector to pass along to others. Some scientists have suggested that the UK may reach a population immunity level as early as mid-December. Hope that proves true and that the situation is similar in the U.S.