L.A. COVID-19 surge perplexes local officials – Los Angeles Times

One possibility that NO ONE wants to ask about is that all of the pandemic response measures may be do not work (or do not work at this point in the pandemic) and have little to no effect on the spread of viruses?

But the clear messaging belies a murkier reality: They don’t fully understand why so many people are becoming infected.

Source: L.A. COVID-19 surge perplexes local officials – Los Angeles Times

There were other news reports from other states saying much the same – they don’t know where the new cases are occurring.

The problem is that contact tracing works for relatively small outbreaks – we are  beyond that now. Consider Florida – in July they  estimated 16% of the population had antibodies to Covid-19. Testing only found 1/10th of those – which means there was no contact tracing for the other 90%!

We must wear face masks inside homes, clearly:

There is plenty of other information pointing to indoor environments as primary sources of coronavirus spread, particularly when people don’t wear masks. The more time people spend together and the closer together they are, the more the risk increases.

No one wears a face mask in the highest risk environment – in the home, with family and social contacts. The data shows retail stores are not high risk but we wear masks there.

There are many published papers and reports finding little to no evidence for the “intuitively obvious” things we do as having any significant reduction of new cases.

Our response when these things are not working is to double or triple down on the same measures that empirically are not working. And then throw in curfews because the virus only comes out at night, or something.

We sure wish there was something that could be done to curtail this -it seems all pandemics eventually end from

  • population immunity
  • the virus mutates to a less virulent form
  • vaccines are developed and deployed
  • Or people just get on with their lives.

But not from all the random policies we throw at them.

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