Effect of school closures on mortality from coronavirus disease 2019

It’s only a model. In fact, its the useless ICL model but whatever – study concludes that shutting schools has led to more deaths.

Some assert that public health pandemic mitigations mostly converted a shorter pandemic into an economically devastating longer pandemic that may end up killing more people.

Results

The CovidSim model would have produced a good forecast of the subsequent data if initialised with a reproduction number of about 3.5 for covid-19. The model predicted that school closures and isolation of younger people would increase the total number of deaths, albeit postponed to a second and subsequent waves. The findings of this study suggest that prompt interventions were shown to be highly effective at reducing peak demand for intensive care unit (ICU) beds but also prolong the epidemic, in some cases resulting in more deaths long term. This happens because covid-19 related mortality is highly skewed towards older age groups. In the absence of an effective vaccination programme, none of the proposed mitigation strategies in the UK would reduce the predicted total number of deaths below 200 000.

Source: Effect of school closures on mortality from coronavirus disease 2019: old and new predictions | The BMJ

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