About 1/3d of people told to quarantine, don’t – so next up is arresting them and forcing them in to quarantine detention centers for weeks.
Flare-ups from Australia to Japan show the world hasn’t learned an early lesson from the coronavirus crisis: to stop the spread, those with mild or symptom-free coronavirus infections must be forced to isolate, both from their communities and family.
Just imagine government troops removing children from homes and placing them in quarantine (per the story this has occurred in other countries). That is what Bloomberg is advocating (see the link).
That will surely encourage the asymptomatic to get tested – not.
All pandemics eventually end – but not all have a known reason for ending. They generally ended due to:
- eventual herd immunity; the virus runs out of host targets
- pathogen mutates to weaker form as in the 1918 influenza pandemic (pathogens that mutate to a more fatal form are less likely to succeed)
- vaccines (as in small pox or the 1957 influenza pandemic)
- Sanitization improvements (perhaps the bubonic plague ended this way but is officially “unknown”)
- Some/many deaths may have been due to poor health care (in 1918, patients were advised to take up to 30 grams of aspirin per day, which was toxic).
All of our social distancing measures, hand washing, face masks, having no contact with our extended families and friends, closing schools and work places – are temporary measures intended to delay new cases only. They do not end the pandemic.
Here is the original first post that started the “flatten the curve” meme:
Some one else called this “flatten the curve”. This does not prevent the disease from spreading, it merely slows it down, delaying cases perhaps to a time when treatments or vaccines are available.
Smaller epidemics have been curtailed by isolating communities, or because the virus is highly fatal and viruses that kill their hosts have a harder time spreading to others.
Social isolation, distancing, face masks, etc, only delay the onset of disease. It does not bring it to a halt – it only slows it down for a time.
The Bloomberg story says Germany has curtailed the virus spread – but neglects to note that Germany has seen a resurgence beginning two weeks ago. Time seems to a great leveler – those that are good for a while eventually get hit too. It is as if all the measures we take really do just delay the onset of the disease spread. Eventually most everyone gets hit in spite of – not because of – all the public health measures.
 There is a theory that some countries, particularly in Asia, may be “more successful” because past exposure to SARS, MERS and common cold coronaviruses may have left much of their population with an effective immune defense to SARS-CoV-2. This is just an hypothesis for now. In other words, the situation in particular countries may be based more on historical luck than anything else.