Called this about 2 weeks ago on my private blog. Officially the drop is said to be due to policy choices but the association between policy choices and outcomes are frequently random.
Across the nation, daily new Covid-19 cases have declined in recent days, driving the seven-day average of new cases down more than 5% compared with a week ago, according to Johns Hopkins data. Health officials have struggled for weeks to halt outbreaks in the American South and West, shuttering businesses and pleading with residents to follow social distancing guidelines and to wear face coverings.
I have ideas – supported by published research – why these trends are playing out this way. I suspect the hot spots will migrate to a few other locations too – and each will play out in a similar time line. But I keep these to myself as I am not in health care or biological sciences- therefore it is de facto required that I note that I am an idiot, have no expertise in any of this, and this post is for entertainment purposes only. (Public health people, on the other hand, are allowed to comment on economics, business, policy without any expertise and without disclaimers. Go figure?)